How to sail the stormy sea of change
First, the January 6 Capital attack, now the unprecedented ousting of the Speaker of the House — these are stark reminders that institutional disintegration is a hallmark of all 4th Turnings. Elsewhere, rising violent crimes and protests, escalating wars, uncontrolled trans-border crossings by millions and natural disasters (from freak weather) are other unmistakable signs that we are in this chaotic end-stage of a recurring (~80-year) long-cycle. So notwithstanding distractions like Taylor Swift’s latest escapades and bread-and-circuses like Biden’s stimulus checks and NFL/NBA games, ordinary folks can sense things are neither normal nor well. The end-stage of this 4th Turnings has already claimed much collateral damage and will continue to do so. Question is, how can we — individually and collectively — avert being collateral damage?
Societies and individuals constantly cycle between order, disorder (chaos), and new order, no different than natural phenomena in the Universe. The only constant is change. Entire branches of mathematics are devoted to describe change.
Most individuals and entities (whether enterprises or governments) crave stasis and resist change. Those scarce few that thrive on change (i.e. not only survive the chaos but come out the other end even better off) are almost always rugged AND flexible. They are rugged because they have a compass of core values and theses that show them “true north”. They are flexible in adapting those values and theses to prevailing conditions.
These individuals and entities do not react to change, they respond to it. Reaction and response compete for the same neural resources so they are mutually exclusive. Reaction wires one to an emotionally-charged pathway of being overwhelmed by the uncontrollable. Response wires one to a calculated pathway of assessment and plan of action. The first can easily lead to shipwreck in a stormy sea of change, the second allows “tacking” through the storm to eventual calm waters. The choice is clear, but made possible only by recognizing and embracing change, not by ignoring, denying, or resisting it.
As previously mentioned, a “true north” compass is key to safe sailing through the stormy seas of change. This translates to a set a of core values and theses that clearly define the individual or entity (e.g. “corporate culture”). On crappy days when “meaning” is hard to come by, it is this unwavering self-identity that keeps the individual or entity on course. Further, the more multifaceted the self-identity is, the more rugged the compass. Just like some parts of a diversified asset portfolio perform well while others take a beating in a tumultuous financial market, a person with a clear sense of being a parent, friend, hobbyist AND an employee can take refuge in certain attributes of his identity while others are being severely tested in chaotic times.
Chaos is by nature confusing. During chaotic 4th Turnings, making sense of things is often an exercise of futility. Meaning only becomes clear post-facto, in the subsequent new order (the next 1st Turning). Problem is, it is difficult to overcome inertia in the absence of meaning. So during chaotic times, “Just do it” maybe a good motto. Put another way, during chaotic times, motivation follows action and not the other way around (as in normal times). Individuals and entities with pre-existing structure and pre-established discipline and routines are best positioned to sail through chaotic times by “just showing up everyday, and doing it”.
Of all flexible adaptations to prevailing conditions, attitude adjustment is probably the most important. Happiness = Reality - Expectations. Reality is uncontrollable, so to maintain the same level of happiness, one has to adjust one's expectations (not of self, but the surrounding world). Stoics (like virtuous Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius) and Zen masters have zero expectation and embrace reality for what it is. They respond instead of react. They live to see — and sometimes even help create — the new order.
